Africa’s heat waves are getting hotter, longer, and deadlier

Heat defined the summer of 2024, a harsh reminder of our changing climate. In the West African city of Kayes, temperatures soared past 119 degrees Fahrenheit in April.

People couldn’t escape the brutal heat. Air conditioners strained electrical grids. Hospitals filled with heat-related illnesses. This wasn’t just a bad week of weather. It was part of a dangerous trend that’s reshaping life across an entire continent.

Heat waves are becoming Africa’s new normal. These prolonged periods of abnormally hot weather now hit harder, last longer, and happen more often than they did just decades ago.

The change is so dramatic that scientists are calling it a complete transformation of African climate patterns.

How Africa’s heat waves changed

New research reveals just how much things have changed. The research team examined heat wave patterns using large-ensemble computer models that could separate different contributing factors. They looked at daytime, nighttime, and compound heat waves that combine both.

Between 1950 and 1979, Africa experienced relatively mild heat waves that occurred roughly once every three to eight years. During this earlier period, natural factors dominated the climate system.

About 80% of heat wave activity came from natural causes like volcanic eruptions and normal weather variations. Sulfate aerosols – tiny particles released by volcanic eruptions and some human activities – actually helped cool the planet by making clouds reflect more sunlight back to space.

Fast forward to recent decades, and the picture looks completely different. From 1985 to 2014, heat waves started showing up every two years or less. They lasted up to three times longer than before.

By this period, human influences had taken over. Greenhouse gas emissions from burning coal, oil, and gas trapped more heat in the atmosphere. Black carbon emissions – essentially soot from incomplete combustion – absorbed sunlight and added to the warming effect.

Human-driven heat waves in Africa

The researchers found that only 30% of recent heat wave activity could be blamed on natural causes. The rest comes directly from human actions.

The team also found a strong connection between heat wave frequency and near-surface air temperatures. This relationship makes sense because both are influenced by similar factors like air circulation patterns and how energy moves between the Earth’s surface and atmosphere.

“Raising awareness of heat waves is critical to saving human life,” said Akintomide Afolayan Akinsanola, head of the Climate Research Lab and assistant professor of Earth and environmental sciences in the UIC College of Liberal Arts and Sciences.

“In a developing continent like Africa, where the capacity for adaptive infrastructure is relatively low, heat waves can have greater consequences.”

Why Africa suffers more from heat

Africa sits in a particularly vulnerable position as our planet warms. The continent lacks the extensive air conditioning, emergency cooling centers, and heat-warning systems that help protect people in wealthier regions. Many communities depend on outdoor work and lack access to reliable electricity for cooling.

The human cost is already mounting. Heat-related illnesses kill about 5,600 people annually in the United States – a country with extensive cooling infrastructure and emergency services. Some experts predict that Nigeria alone could see heat-related deaths rise to 23,000 or even 43,000 per year by the end of this century.

The most vulnerable people – infants, older adults, and those with existing health conditions – face the greatest risks. But heat waves don’t just threaten individual health. They damage entire ecosystems, reduce crop yields, and overwhelm energy systems when people desperately need power for cooling.

“I was surprised to see that these changes were consistent across the African subregions, not just a specific isolated area,” said Vishal Bobde, a doctoral student in Akinsanola’s lab and the study’s first author.

Ripple effects of extreme heat

Heat waves create a cascade of problems that extend far beyond uncomfortable temperatures. When crops fail due to extreme heat, food prices rise and communities face shortages.

Energy systems struggle to meet cooling demands, leading to blackouts that make the heat even more dangerous.

These climate pressures can force people to leave their homes in search of cooler, more livable areas. Large-scale migration puts stress on destination communities and can create conflicts over resources. The researchers warn that these effects don’t stay contained within Africa’s borders.

“The impacts are wide-ranging, from productivity to food shortage to energy,” said Akinsanola, who is jointly appointed at the Environmental Science Division of Argonne National Laboratory.

“Remember that the African population is close to 2 billion. Heat waves can lead to drought, trigger migration and spark conflicts, thereby impacting regional, continental and even global stability.”

Looking toward heat solutions

Scientists hope their findings will help African communities, governments, and international organizations develop better strategies for dealing with heat waves.

This includes creating early warning systems that can alert people when dangerous heat is approaching, and improving what researchers call “heat-risk literacy” – helping people understand and respond to heat dangers.

“While Africa contributes a relatively small share of global greenhouse gas emissions, climate change is a global issue that is intensifying heat waves everywhere. Addressing this requires global cooperation to aggressively reduce emissions and build adaptive capacity,” said Kayode Ayegbusi, co-first author and UIC doctoral student in Akinsanola’s lab.

Preparing for a hotter future

The research team plans to investigate how future heat wave patterns might change depending on whether the world meets the goals set in the 2015 Paris Agreement. This international treaty aims to limit global temperature increases and reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Understanding these climate patterns represents just the first step. The real challenge lies in translating scientific knowledge into practical solutions that can protect vulnerable communities from an increasingly hostile climate.

The full study was published in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.

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