Bumpy skies ahead: Why air turbulence is getting worse

The seatbelt sign pings on – trays rattle and drinks slosh. For many flyers, turbulence is unnerving on the best of days.

A warming climate is adding fuel to the bumps, and a growing body of research shows that choppy skies are likely to become more frequent and intense.

Turbulence injuries make headlines

Beyond frayed nerves, turbulence is the leading cause of in-flight weather accidents. The absolute numbers are small, but serious incidents make headlines and underscore the risk.

There were 207 reported injuries on U.S. commercial flights between 2009 and 2024. Recent examples include an Air Europa flight in which 40 passengers were hurt, and a Singapore Airlines flight where one passenger died and dozens were injured.

“Typically, injuries (are) to unbelted passengers or cabin crew rather than structural damage,” said John Abraham, a mechanical engineering professor at the University of St. Thomas. “Modern aircraft withstand turbulence, so the main risk is occupant injury, not loss of the plane.”

Even without damage, severe encounters trigger inspections. “Severe” is about 1.5 times the normal force of Earth’s gravity, and those events occur some 5,000 times a year over the United States, said Robert Sharman, senior scientist emeritus at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

Turbulence also drives up fuel burn when pilots must leave optimal altitudes, alter routes, or change speeds, Abraham added.

Not all bumps are equal

Not all turbulence is the same. Lead author Mohamed Foudad, an atmospheric scientist at the University of Reading, identified three main types.

Convective turbulence is linked to rising or sinking air from clouds or thunderstorms and can be seen on radar or visually. Mountain wave turbulence forms as winds spill over ranges. The most dangerous is clear-air turbulence (CAT), which is invisible.

CAT tends to form near jet streams – fast west-to-east rivers of air around six to seven miles up, at the same cruising levels as commercial jets. That’s where wind shear, the change in wind speed and direction with height, can set off sharp, unseen jolts.

Climate change and turbulence

The physics that drive CAT are changing. With climate change, the tropics are warming faster at cruising altitude than higher latitudes. That increases the temperature difference between low and high latitudes.

The gradient strengthens jet streams and sharpens wind shear – the volatile vertical shifts that trigger CAT. Foudad and colleagues analyzed data from 1980 to 2021.

“We find a clear, positive trend – an increase in turbulence frequency over many regions, including the North Atlantic, North America, East Asia, the Middle East, and North Africa,” Foudad said, with increases ranging from 60 to 155 percent.

Further analysis linked rising turbulence in certain regions to increased greenhouse gas emissions.

Warming shifts turbulence seasons

A 2023 paper led by Isabel Smith at the University of Reading found that for every degree Celsius of near-surface warming, North Atlantic winters would see about a nine percent increase in moderate CAT, and summers a 14 percent rise.

While winter has historically been the roughest season for turbulence, warming is now amplifying CAT in summer and autumn, closing the gap. Jet stream disruption is not the only concern.

“Climate change may also increase the frequency and severity of thunderstorms under future scenarios, and turbulence encounters near thunderstorms are a major component of turbulence accidents,” Sharman said.

Airlines brace for rough skies

Some fixes are operational. Foudad is working on optimizing flight routes to avoid turbulence hotspots and improving forecasting accuracy so dispatchers and crews can plan better climbs, descents, and deviations.

Airlines are adjusting procedures too, encouraging passengers to keep seatbelts fastened more often and ending cabin service earlier when rough air is likely.

Technology may help crews see the invisible. Sharman said promising onboard LIDAR systems are being tested. These beam lasers search the atmosphere to sense subtle shifts in air density and wind speed ahead, giving pilots a preview of clear-air disturbances before the bumps arrive.

Climate action, less turbulence

Ultimately, the root cause is the same force remaking weather everywhere. Cutting greenhouse gas emissions is essential if we want to ease long-term turbulence trends driven by climate change.

Aviation accounts for about 3.5 percent of human-caused warming. Airlines are exploring cleaner fuels to reduce the industry’s footprint, though progress has been “disappointingly slow,” according to the International Air Transport Association.

In the meantime, the advice for passengers is simple and time-tested. Keep your seatbelt buckled when seated.

Heed crew instructions and expect that summertime and shoulder-season flights may feel rougher than they used to. Moreover, remember that modern airliners are built to handle turbulence.

“Modern aircraft withstand turbulence, so the main risk is occupant injury, not loss of the plane,” Abraham said.

The skies aren’t falling, but they are getting choppier. In a warming world, that’s one more reason to respect the forecast, secure the cabin early, and curb the emissions that are adding extra shake to the jet stream’s natural sway.

The study is published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres.

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